Elections
Poll tracker: how the numbers are moving six months out from the election
Our rolling average of the major public polls shows a tightening race, with the outcome likely to hinge on two or three swing seats and the minor parties.
With six months until New Zealanders go to the polls, the Nash Press poll tracker — a rolling average of the major public surveys — shows a race that has tightened significantly since the start of the year.
On current numbers, neither of the two largest parties can govern alone, leaving the balance of power with the minor parties and, potentially, a handful of electorate results too close to
What the average shows
- The two major parties are separated by less than the margin of error.
- Support for minor parties has firmed, with at least three comfortably above the 5 percent threshold.
- Preferred–Prime-Minister ratings have narrowed to their tightest in over a year.
As always, our tracker weights polls by sample size and recency, and smooths out the noise of any single survey. It is a guide to the trend, not a forecast of the result.
We will update the tracker as each new poll is released through the campaign. A full methodology note is available in our Briefing Room.
Filed by
Amelia Whitcombe
Your reaction
How did this land with you?
A yes/no can't carry how you feel — pick the face that does. Every reaction is counted — we'll check it's you with a quick email code.
0 reactions recorded